Trevor Owens (@TO)
80% entrepreneurs think they have a 70% chance of success.
— Dee Patience (@DeePatience) December 10, 2013
Five major biases in building better products.
Hindsight bias – the past being more predictable than they actually were. To overcome HS we need a success criteria (a prediction about what happens and “get out of the building”
Overconfidence effect – We think our abilities are greater than they are. “Most startups fail because they spend time working on the wrong thing”. Failure is the ultimate way to overcome this.
Confirmation bias – the ability to seek out information that confirms our beliefs. Fear is the foundation of all confirmation bias. Take the riskiest assumption out of your business and test it (it’s going to feel like being punched in the face).
Observer effect – researchers make us change our behaviour when we know they are studying us. When you run experiments you don’t want them to know you’re being been interviews. Wizard of Oz great for this. Someone in their natural environment is the best test.
Experimenter Effect – we can have our own biases change the data so we get the right answers.
The things is some of us could just be going through the motions. We need someone to make sure we’re after the truth and not the answers we want.
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